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Abstract We analyze the evolution of massive (log₁₀[M_⋆/M_⊙] > 10) galaxies atz∼ 1–4 selected from JWST Cosmic Evolution Early Release Survey (CEERS). We infer the physical properties of all galaxies in the CEERS NIRCam imaging through spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting withdense basisto select a sample of high-redshift massive galaxies. Where available we include constraints from additional CEERS observing modes, including 18 sources with MIRI photometric coverage, and 28 sources with spectroscopic confirmations from NIRSpec or NIRCam WFSS. We sample the recovered posteriors in stellar mass from SED fitting to infer the volume densities of massive galaxies across cosmic time, taking into consideration the potential for sample contamination by active galactic nuclei. We find that the evolving abundance of massive galaxies tracks expectations based on a constant baryon conversion efficiency in dark matter halos forz∼ 1–4. At higher redshifts, we observe an excess abundance of massive galaxies relative to this simple model, resulting in a shallower decline of observed volume densities of massive galaxies. These higher abundances can be explained by modest changes to star formation physics and/or the efficiencies with which star formation occurs in massive dark matter halos, and are not in tension with modern cosmology. 

Abstract The 3D geometries of high-redshift galaxies remain poorly understood. We build a differentiable Bayesian model and use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to efficiently and robustly infer the 3D shapes of star-forming galaxies in James Webb Space Telescope Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science observations with $\log M_{*}/M_{\odot }=9.0–10.5$atz= 0.5–8.0. We reproduce previous results from the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey in a fraction of the computing time and constrain the mean ellipticity, triaxiality, size, and covariances with samples as small as ∼50 galaxies. We find high 3D ellipticities for all mass–redshift bins, suggesting oblate (disky) or prolate (elongated) geometries. We break that degeneracy by constraining the mean triaxiality to be ∼1 for $\log M_{*}/M_{\odot }=9.0–9.5$dwarfs atz> 1 (favoring the prolate scenario), with significantly lower triaxialities for higher masses and lower redshifts indicating the emergence of disks. The prolate population traces out a “banana” in the projected $b/a–\log a$diagram with an excess of low-b/a, large- $\log a$galaxies. The dwarf prolate fraction rises from ∼25% atz= 0.5–1.0 to ∼50%–80% atz= 3–8. Our results imply a second kind of disk settling from oval (triaxial) to more circular (axisymmetric) shapes with time. We simultaneously constrain the 3D size–mass relation and its dependence on 3D geometry. High-probability prolate and oblate candidates show remarkably similar Sérsic indices (n∼ 1), nonparametric morphological properties, and specific star formation rates. Both tend to be visually classified as disks or irregular, but edge-on oblate candidates show more dust attenuation. We discuss selection effects, follow-up prospects, and theoretical implications.